House of the Dragon, season 4: what we expect from the final season

After a checkered season 3, the series is preparing to go all out with a fourth and final season expected in 2028. A dance to conclude, many intrigues to close and the painful memory of the end of Game of Thrones: should we be worried?

After three seasons, House of the Dragon is approaching the moment of truth.

Announced in November 2025 as the final chapter of the series, season 4 should not arrive before 2028, with filming which could begin in early 2027.

Eight episodes of around an hour to put an end to the Dance of Dragons, close the arcs of Rhaenyra, Aegon, Alicent and others… and above all avoid repeating the errors which transformed the end of Game of Thrones into a television trauma.

Because we have to admit: season 3 of House of the Dragon left a strange feeling. However, she started with solid arguments. Tensions were at their peak, the dragons were ready to take the skies again, and the war between Black and Green finally seemed to be entering its most brutal phase. Then, as the episodes progressed, the story became scattered. The figures seemed to be going in circles. The plots gradually lost their urgency and the narration gave the impression of constantly preparing for events that never happened.

A problem all the more frustrating since House of the Dragon has a considerable advantage over its big sister: its story is already widely shared. George RR Martin recounted the Dance of Dragons in Fire & Blood. The major stages are there, the battles are known, the destinies of the characters too. So HBO doesn’t have to invent the destination. Only to succeed in the journey. And that’s perhaps where it gets stuck: at the start of 2026, Martin publicly described his relationship with showrunner Ryan Condal as “terrible” even revealing that HBO had asked him, at one point, to leave the series after a particularly heated Zoom meeting devoted to the changes made to season 3. The conflict focused on the significant gaps between the series and the novel.

Obviously, it’s hard not to see this as a warning sign. House of the Dragon is now hurtling towards its conclusion and must still come to terms with the choices it made along the way. Changes are not necessarily a problem in themselves (an adaptation must be able to take liberties). But when the author himself believes that these freedoms have profoundly distorted his story, the question of the coherence of the last act necessarily arises. So how do we put out the fire before it consumes the dragon’s house?

Putting the characters before the big events

This is probably the number one lesson to learn from Game of Thrones. Season 8 didn’t just disappoint because some events were questionable. Above all, it gave the feeling that the characters were sometimes sacrificed in the name of the conclusion. Daenerys transformed into a mad queen in a few episodes, Jaime suddenly returning to Cersei, Bran becoming king without the story really succeeding in making this choice satisfactory: many decisions could have worked on paper. It was their rushed execution that caused the problem. House of the Dragon must avoid this trap. She already knows the fate of her protagonists. Rhaenyra, Aegon, Alicent, Aemond and the others must not become mere pawns responsible for moving the plot until the final credits.

Season 3 had just started to prepare for some interesting developments, particularly around Rhaenyra. The final season must now bring them to their conclusion without rushing things.

Stop preparing for war and finally tell it

This is one of the great frustrations of season 3: House of the Dragon sometimes gave the impression of telling the beginnings of the Dance of the Dragons when it is already well underway. Season 4 will no longer have this luxury. The sort of Dragonstone, the big moment of the Dragonpit, the battle above the God’s Eye, the second battle of Tumbleton or even the final confrontation between Rhaenyra and Aegon II are among the moments that spectators are now waiting to see come to life! There is enough material there to offer the most spectacular sequences of the entire series. But HBO will have to find the right balance: go big, without transforming the last season into a succession of battles disconnected from each other.

Give time to consequences

The other danger would be precisely to want to fit everything into eight episodes. Because the end of the Dance of Dragons is not just about the duel between Rhaenyra and Aegon. The consequences of the war affect a veritable army of characters: Baela, Addam, Corlys, Alyn, Hugh, Ulf, Mysaria, Alicent, Helaena… The death of Helaena, the return of Aegon II, the choices of Mysaria, the uncertain loyalty of Ulf or even the consequences of the decisions made by Rhaenyra must have dramatic weight. The viewer must feel that each death, each betrayal and each reversal really changes the world. This is precisely what made the first seasons of Game of Thrones so strong. The characters had time to live with their decisions. In its final stretch, House of the Dragon will have to find this breathing again.

Maintain consistency

The public does not necessarily expect to be surprised. He waits for what happens to make sense. The ending of Game of Thrones showed that an event could be spectacular, unexpected, and yet disappointing if it didn’t seem to flow naturally from what came before. House of the Dragon has a rare opportunity to do the opposite. Since the broad outlines are known, she can focus on the “how”.

The priority must be consistency. After the disaster of season 8 of Game of Thrones, HBO knows better than anyone what happens when an event series reaches its final chapter. The end of a story will never be able to satisfy everyone. But it can at least seem deserved. That’s ultimately all we ask of House of the Dragon. Not necessarily rewriting Game of Thrones. Not to reproduce the madness of its first seasons. Not even making each choice popular with fans. Simply to tell your own story correctly until the end. Because the Dance of Dragons already has all the ingredients of an immense tragedy: families torn apart, dragons, betrayals, deaths and survivors condemned to bear the weight of their decisions. No need to add more.