Why the new Spielberg may not be profitable for Universal

Despite its good start, Disclosure Day is still far from the balance point and the big releases to come will not help it.

Yes, Disclosure Day got off to a solid start at the global box office. The filmmaker’s best launch in almost a decade.

But medium-term projections are already tempering the enthusiasm around Steven Spielberg’s new film. Several analysts believe that its financial balance is far from being acquired for Universal.

The break-even point in theaters is estimated between 350 and 390 million dollars, according to Puck, based on a production budget of 115 million, to which must be added marketing costs, estimated at 80 million.

Starring Emily Blunt and Josh O’Connor, the sci-fi feature has grossed around $120 million worldwide so far, but only $60 million in the United States. A good start, but still insufficient to calmly consider the future. Because as is often the case in Hollywood, everything is played out first on the American market, where the share of revenues paid to the studios is clearly more favorable than internationally. A key factor in hoping to make a blockbuster of this caliber profitable.

And the dynamic could quickly become tense. Several projections anticipate a marked drop at the US box office, from the second weekend, around -50%, in a market which will be saturated by the event release of Toy Story 5 this week, then by that of Supergirl then the animated hit Minions and Monsters. All this before the summer holidays even begin…

Especially since the holidays won’t necessarily help, since “the young audience is very low”, notes a market study, which highlights that 18-24 year olds represent only a marginal fraction of spectators.

But like Disclosure Day aims at a more adult audience, it will also go against the grain of a release calendar dominated by family blockbusters. In this context, some analysts believe that this positioning could paradoxically allow it to “survive in a saturated market”, even if the competition promises to be particularly head-on. The trajectory of the film will therefore depend as much on its long-term performance as on its ability to exist in the face of the power of attraction of major franchises.

Steven Spielberg’s last really profitable big box office hit was Ready Player One (2018), with around $590 million in worldwide revenue for a production budget of around $175 million, making it his last film to have passed its break-even point in theaters.