Despite the Cinema Day, attendance is in free fall in French rooms

Fear in cinemas after the takeover of Warner Bros. by Netflix

Cinema operators are sounding the alarm after the historic deal signed between the streaming platform and the Hollywood studio. Netflix tries to reassure, but Donald Trump is already mentioning a possible “problem”…

This is an earthquake for the cinema ecosystem, already weakened since the pandemic. And in dark rooms, we have rarely trembled so much.

The shock caused by the takeover of Warner Bros. by Netflix for $82.7 billion continues to crack the entire industry. Exhibitors suddenly see their main supplier of blockbusters come under the flag of a streaming giant known for its minimalist, or even non-existent, broadcast windows.

Cinema United, the most powerful lobby of American exhibitors, was quick to sound the alarm. According to its president Michael O’Leary, “the proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. by Netflix represents an unprecedented threat to global exploitation”. He adds:

“The negative impact will be felt from the biggest circuits to single-screen independent theaters in small American towns and around the world.”

And his message is clear: “Netflix does not support the theatrical cinema business model. It’s even the opposite. Regulators must carefully examine the details of this transaction and understand the consequences it will have on consumers, operations and the entire sector.”.

Behind this cry of alarm lies a brutal fact: Warner Bros. accounts for approximately 25% of the annual box office in the United States. If Netflix decides to reserve WB productions for its platform, hundreds of millions of admissions could evaporate overnight.

Operators’ concerns

Among theater managers, reactions oscillate between panic and disbelief. Stacey Spikes, co-founder of MoviePass, sums up the astonishment in one sentence: “The world has just changed axis”.

Chris Randleman, director of the Flix Brewhouse cinema chain, does not hide his hope that the federal government will block the sale: “I hope the deal gets canceled so Warner can be taken over by a more suitable actor”. He even calls on Hollywood talents to enter the battle: “All the intellectual property in the world is useless if the directors and actors refuse to work with you”.

Artists step up to the plate

In this climate of astonishment, Seth Rogen imagines how his character, studio boss — Matt Remick, in The Studio — would react to such an announcement (via Variety):

“He would be terrified. He would be the type to think that if you do a good job, your company will never be sold to a tech company… He would be wrong, obviously.”

His sidekick Evan Goldberg remains doubtful about the outcome of the deal: “Who knows if it will really happen?” And he slips in a suggestion: “For me, it is the AMC cinema group (the largest American exhibitor) which should buy Warner. No one would see this coming. And it would be the antithesis of Netflix”.

Sean Baker, Oscar-winning director‘Anoraalso makes his voice heard. Obviously an opinion that counts, given the statuettes won this winter. If he remains cautious until the deal is finalized, he sets a clear red line: “Filmmakers must bang their fists on the table. We must not reduce the operating windows, but widen them.” During the Red Sea Film Festival, as president of the international jury, he hit the nail on the head:

“This is how the filmmaker wants you to see his film: in theaters. Everyone else can wait. My next film will have a hundred-day window, whatever happens. Direct streaming diminishes the importance of a film. The theater magnifies it.”

Will Hollywood stars have to step up to the plate one after the other? Can they just do it, knowing that most actors and actresses have already largely given in to the sirens of streaming in recent years?

Netflix wants to reassure

Faced with this outcry from the industry, Ted Sarandos tries to put out the fire. During a meeting with Wall Street, the co-CEO of Netflix recalls (via Deadline) that “Netflix released around 30 films in theaters this year. and assures that he is not hostile to cinema exploitation – but only to long exclusives.

“Long and exclusive windows are not very suitable for consumers”he argues, while the major circuits are trying to reinstate windows of 30 to 45 days, undermined during Covid. As for concerns about the future of Warner films, Sarandos wants to be reassuring:

“I wouldn’t say that this merger marks a change in approach, either for Netflix films or for Warner films. I think that over time, the release windows will evolve towards something more consumer-friendly… to go where the audience is. That’s what we all want to do eventually. But for now, you can count on the fact that all the films scheduled to be released theatrically through Warner Bros. will continue to be released theatrically through Warner Bros. And the Netflix films will follow the same logic than today: some will benefit from a short stint in theaters before arriving on the platform.”

Enough to calm the industry? Far from it. And it is the American President who could have the last word.

What will Donald Trump do?

All eyes are already on Donald Trump. The current tenant of the White House loves to pose as a savior, and he could take great pleasure in coming to the aid of Hollywood talents, always in direct opposition to him politically. He also says he already met Ted Sarandos in the Oval Office a few days ago to discuss this titanic merger. And he admits it: the weight of a Netflix merged with Warner Bros. and HBO Max “could be a problem”.

In front of the cameras, during the Kennedy Center Honors evening, Donald Trump assured that the operation should “to be examined” and that it will be “involved in this decision”.

True to his showmanship, he blurted out:

“Ted Sarandos is a fantastic man. I have a lot of respect for him, but it would still take a lot of market share…. There’s no doubt. It could be a problem.”

Understandably, antitrust laws, which are very strict in the United States, could ultimately block a deal that combines risks. The Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission are expected to examine the case. Trump specifies that the process must “follow its course, and we’ll see what happens…”

Nothing is set in stone yet.

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