The Captain Marvel sequel has the 4th largest budget in Marvel Studios history.
If the films of MCU no longer make as much money at the box office, they are far from making ridiculous scores. Raising $400 to $800 million is more than honorable. The problem is that Marvel Studios no longer knows how to control its production costs. Ant-Man 3, Black Panther 2, Thor 4 Or Guardians of the Galaxy 3 all benefited from a budget of between 200 and 250 million. It’s a lot. It’s too much.
Surpassing a billion at the box office is not easy. This year, only two films made it, and they are not Marvel-branded: Super Mario Bros And barbie. Despite its critical and public success, Guardians 3 had to settle for $845 million. A very good score, in reality, close to the ceiling for a post MCU film Avengers: Endgame.
To continue to make profits, Marvel would probably have to revise its budgets a little downward. But obviously this is not on the agenda. According to Forbes, Disney revealed that of The Marvels, the next to be released in theaters, and it would have cost a whopping $274.8 million. The 4th largest budget in the history of the MCU behind the Avengers (Endgame, Ultron And Infinity War). Thanks to subsidies from the British government, the studio recovered 55 million, which reduced the final bill to 219.8 million. But still…
As noted for example by The Direct website, The Marvels will have to bring in at least $600 million to be considered a success by Disney. As a reminder, the marketing budget must be added to the announced budget (which can amount to 100 million for a superhero film). And remember that not all revenue ends up in the studio’s pockets. In the United States, studios recover around half, in Europe a third and in China only a quarter.
The first movie, Captain Marvelhaving grossed $1.1 billion in 2019, The Marvels should be easily profitable, right? It is more complicated than that. When it was released in 2019, Captain Marvel rode the wave ofInfinity War And Endgame, which grossed 2 billion and 2.8 billion respectively at the box office. Today, the situation has changed. And fans have had a complicated relationship with Carol Danvers since her arrival in the MCU.
The first trailer for The Marvels, the most disliked on YouTube for an MCU film, cruelly reminded us of this last April. And the fact of having associated Brie Larson to two new heroines, Monica Rambeau And Miss Marvel, will not necessarily change the situation. The first appeared briefly in WandaVision, the second in the Marvel series which had the lowest audiences on Disney Plus. And with the strike in effect in Hollywood, they cannot participate in the promotion of the film.
Nia DaCosta, the director of The Marvels, is lucid: “It’s Kevin Feige’s film”
At this stage, no predictions on the box office of The Marvels, which is scheduled for release on November 8 in France, is not yet available. And it is too early to comment on its future performance at the box office. If Nia Dacosta’s film will undoubtedly have difficulty repeating the score of Captain Marvel, it could still create a surprise provided it seduces the critics and the public. Above all, it should benefit from the postponement of Dune 2which was scheduled for release on November 1st, which gives it a boost in its niche before that ofAquaman 2end December.